Legal versus Medical Education and some blatant 'crowdsourcing'

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Sunday, May 27, 2012

Legal versus Medical Education and some blatant 'crowdsourcing'

In many posts on the state of legal education and the legal profession (on this blog and others) I've seen repeated references to medical education. While I imagine that there exist certain "apples and oranges" aspects to this comparison, it is intriguing. However, I am going to state something that I think might apply to a lot of people - that is, while I have a vague notion of what occurs in medical education (from TV and movies), I feel that I don't really know enough about it to make proper comparisons to legal education (something on which I have experience from both sides of the podium).

Therefore, my purpose here is to blatently 'crowdsource' this information. I have a few questions (ok, a lot of questions) posted below for folks who have experiences with medical education (preferably first-hand, but second-hand is ok too). In the best case scenario we might get some JD/MDs to weigh in on this matter.

If there is any interest, I'd be happy to share my comparative experiences as a new lawyer vs. political science PhD grad (and perhaps fellow guest prawfs blogger Bob Howard can chime in on this)? - although there may not be a great market for that discussion? ;-)

Jeff

1) How difficult is it to get into medical school? (gpa, % test scores, etc.)

2) How much does it cost to go to medical school? (per yer tuition for private/public; how many years do you pay full tuition, etc.)

3) Um, what happens in class? 1st year, 2nd year, 3rd year, etc.? How are you tested/graded? Is it very competitive (e.g. backbiting) or is it 'everyone's a winner'?

4) What are faculty teaching loads? How are they evaluated for rank/tenure (research; teaching evaluations) ? Are rank and tenure the same as in law and/or other fields (e.g. assistant, associate, full)? How are faculty recruited? What is faculty worklife like? Do they make significantly less than non-faculty doctors?

5) How important are grades for medical students in getting jobs? Is there a significant split (as there seems to be in law) between the salaries for the top 15% of the class (or top 15 law school) and the rest? What else matters?

6) How much do doctors make after they begin private practice? Five years out? Ten years out? Is there a large gap between pay for rural vs. urban areas?? (Related to question #3 please discuss salaries during the residency years - this question is about after all of that)

7) How mobile are medical degrees/licenses? How difficult is it to start a practice in another state?

8) How hard is it to get a job as a doctor as a new graduate?

?

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Goodness, I set out to write an answer, but these would take me like 45 minutes or so to complete. Respondent burden is way too high!

I'd like to help, but can you trim it down to 4-5 questions (and no compound questions, please!) you'd most like to get some answers to?

(I am an attorney and a faculty member in a medical school).

Posted by: Daniel S. Goldberg | May 27, 2012 6:05:21 PM

I think that Qs 3,4, and 6 (primary questions) would probably be the most helpful - sorry for extended Qs ... once I get going ...

Posted by: Jeff Yates | May 27, 2012 6:34:11 PM

There is a ton of information available on the Association of American Medical Colleges website:
https://www.aamc.org/students/considering/gettingin/

Posted by: Jeff Lipshaw | May 27, 2012 7:00:28 PM

I know a couple of things Med and Law Schools have in common: they do not require of entering students much competency in STEM and, in the 3-4 years they pretend to teach the student, they do nothing to remedy the situation. Surprisingly, the English Language skills of the students do not seem to be that much better.

The obfuscating prose of lawyers is legendary, but try reading anything a doc or nurse writes, whether in the NYT or in a professional journal, and you will see numerous instances of "at risk for [some disease]" where "at risk of [some disease]" would be the proper form. These are folks who are missing some serious processing between ear and tongue.

It is disastrous for this country that so many of POTUS, COTUS and SCOTUS are drawn from the miserable pool of law-school grads, most of whom have taken undergrad degrees in mickey-mouse majors like History, Philosophy, English and International Affairs. That accounts for the fact that only Breyer of 9 on SCOTUS, only some 8 of 535 in COTUS, and nobody since Carter as POTUS has shown any sophistication when it comes to STEM.

Posted by: Jimbino | May 27, 2012 7:37:48 PM

(1) Medical admissions are more competitive than law school admissions. The overall acceptance rate is about 10%, and is well under 5% for the most selective schools. Median GPAs are typically between 3.5 and 3.8.

(2) Private tuition and fees are typically on the order of $50,000 a year, as are public non-resident tuition and fees. In-state students at public medical schools may pay half of that.

(3) First and second years are all-day five-day-a-week lectures, taught by a large and rotating cast of faculty. Exams are generally multiple-choice or objective (very) short answer (e.g. "name this body part."). The emphasis is strongly on memorization of large quantities of material. Depending on the school, the lectures may be intercut with simulations, small-group discussions, and shadowing affiliated doctors--but these aren't the dominant part of the curriculum. Third and fourth years are spent rotating through a wide variety of medical specialties, shadowing actual doctors, answering questions they put to you, and doing whatever smaller tasks make you most useful. (E.g., in surgery, "Hold this and don't move for the next two hours.") Grading in third and fourth years is based on some tests, but more on evaluations by the doctors with whom one works.

(4) Faculty are split between practicing doctors, laboratory researchers, and a (much) smaller contingent of lecturers. There are typically many more of them than at a law school, with much lighter individual classroom teaching loads. (E.g., it is not uncommon for a doctor's entire classroom teaching responsibilities for a year to be a week's worth of lectures.) Grading is trivial, due to the objectively graded exams. These faculty should generally be thought of as doctors and bench scientists first, and as teachers second: they just happen to have "faculty" positions that require some teaching, and they're hired for their other work. Promotion within the faculty ranks is based on research. Residents and affiliated physicians may do some TA-like precpting work.

(5) Grades in medical school are important only in not flunking out and in applying for residencies. The other important factor in residency applications is recommendations from doctors one worked with during third and fourth year. After that, the brand name of one's residency program, recommendations, and personal contacts are the most important factors in finding a job. Thus, grades (especially first- and second-year grades) matter, but in an indirect way that can be compensated for later.

(6) The principal exception to this point is that salaries diverge strikingly based on medical specialty. ROAD specialties (Radiology, Opthalmology, Anesthesiology, and Dermatology) are reported to have the highest salaries, and family practice the lowest. The AAMC reports a range from perhaps $150,000 for lower-paying specialties to $350,000 and up for the higher-paying ones. There's geographic variation, too, and seniority, and type of practice, so it gets complicated quickly. Thus, medical school grades can have a significant effect on your job and salary by affecting what specialty you get a residency in.

(7) The licensing practice is absurdly annoying, but it's less of a big deal than retaking the bar exam. Each state has its own licensing board, there are controlled-substance rules, etc. -- it adds up to a lot of paperwork and delay to be licensed in a new state. But the crucial exams and certifications are national.

(8) Because of the residency requirement, no medical school graduate can go out and just start working as a doctor. But there are well more than enough residency slots to go around (provided one is willing to compromise on geography or specialty). Leaving residency, the norm is that everyone who still wants to work as a doctor will find a job. Put another way, our regulatory system has too few residency slots given the demand for doctors, and too few medical school slots given the number of residency slots.

Also, pace Jimbino, medical schools generally require 32 course hours of STEM work in college -- 8 in biology, 8 in physics, and 16 in chemistry -- plus the MCAT, a majority of which tests science. Given the competitive nature of medical school admissions, a year of math and a year of biochemistry are strongly encouraged.

Now, it's time for the gentle scolding. All of your questions are amenable to Googling. All of them. I have enough secondhand experience with medical school that it wasn't hard for me to give (partial) answers. But really, shouldn't crowdsourcing be saved for questions to which crowds can give better answers?

Posted by: James Grimmelmann | May 27, 2012 11:18:58 PM

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Mark Landsbaum: California's risky bet on Facebook

California government may receive a windfall from huge capital-gains taxes on the sale of Facebook stock following the Palo Alto social-networking behemoth's recent initial public offering.

Or not.

Some were disappointed that the stock opened at $38 only to drop within a few days to $31.

A worst-case scenario for Gov. Jerry Brown and his Democratic Party colleagues desperate to shore up the state budget would be if resales of Facebook stock kept declining in value, not only eliminating capital gains, but providing tax deductions for selling shares at less than their purchase price.

The point isn't whether Facebook is a risky investment. It may or may not enrich the state's treasury. Brown estimated as much as $1.5 billion in tax revenue by fiscal year end.

But Moody's Investor Services warned: "Because capital-gains revenues are volatile and difficult to forecast, there is no guarantee that the state will receive the amount" it estimates, adding, "the state could receive much less, or much more."

The point is, Brown and friends don't know, one way or the other.

Nevertheless, as always, the powers that be in Sacramento put the best face on the prospects. And plan to spend accordingly. Their spending plans almost always outstrip their ability to fleece, ahem, make that to tax Californians.

What if Brown put the people he served first? Then he wouldn't continually disappoint. Brown's budget assumes his $8.5 billion tax increase will pass in November. Why not budget for it not passing? "He has," you say? Well, he has a contingency to trigger spending cuts if it doesn't pass.

That's not the same. It's a fundamentally flawed approach. It builds in disappointment. Brown should operate the way good businesses do. They underpromise and overdeliver. That minimizes disappointment and, occasionally, pleasantly surprises those served.

Instead, Brown overpromises, and consequently nearly always underdelivers. That maximizes disappointment. And leaves those served grumbling.

When ambitious promises fail to materialize, underserved people become irritated, feeling victimized by false advertisements. In the private sector, repeatedly overpromising and underdelivering results in customers who stop buying, and flee.

Brown's customers can't stop buying what government sells. But they can flee. And they have been, to other states.

Brown's revised proposed budget for the coming fiscal year, starting July 1, would spend a combined $224 billion in its general, special, bond and federal funds. That's $30 billion more than the state spent in 2007-08, the year before the recession hit.

If anything is obvious, it's that the top priority for Brown and fellow Democrats is getting more of the people's money, not serving people well.

They resemble Rocco, the gangster character in the 1948 movie "Key Largo," portrayed by Edward G. Robinson. Rocco was a ruthless mobster, and single-minded. What did Rocco want?

"He wants more. Don't you, Rocco?" says the character played by Humphrey Bogart.

"That's it! More," Rocco beams. "That's right, I want more!"

"Will you ever get enough? Will you, Rocco?"

"Well, I never have. No, I guess I won't."

The Capitol crowd resembles Rocco. They always want more tax money, and they have yet to get enough.

Brown laments that the general fund portion of his budget is $17 billion short of how much he wants to spend. He doesn't remind voters that, as the Wall Street Journal's Alyssa Finley pointed out, for "several years legislators have been using special funds (fees earmarked for specific purposes) to pay for programs that are usually financed by general fund spending." Instead, Brown says he needs more ? another $8.5 billion from taxpayers, to whom he literally has pleaded to increase their own taxes at the polls in November.

Will he ever get enough? To ask the question is to answer it.

Brown & Co. are like slick grifters, who con naive grandmotherly types. They promise great rewards, perhaps a gilded high-speed locomotive, or they pull at the heartstrings: "It's for the children."

They do whatever it takes to get granny to the bank to withdrawal her savings, using whatever pretense that works. Once her life savings are liquid, the old shell game soon separates the foolish taxpayers, uh, grandmothers, from their money.

Brown wants to persuade voters to approve just one more "temporary" tax increase. Even though the Capitol mob said the same thing in 2009, the last time they tried to shove a temporary tax increase down voters' throats. Voters responded with a loud "No," by 2-1 at the polls, probably because the vote came only months after the Legislature had shoved an even larger temporary tax increase down taxpayers' throats, on the promise it would be the last time.

More. It's the Sacramento motto. It should be embossed on their business cards.

In 2006, the Legislature celebrated saving the Earth from global warming by passing the arrogantly named Global Warming Solutions Act. We suspected it was more about control and money than temperatures.

Sure enough. Global warming, the nonthreatening condition that has risen and fallen for centuries before SUVs and smokestacks, remains unsolved. But the Act enabled Brown's Air Resources Board to impose a cap-and-trade scheme to force companies to pay billions to the state for the privilege of doing what they've always done, emit harmless CO2.

That pot of gold promises to provide Sacramento's tax-and-spenders much more of what they want most. Other people's money.

Earlier this year Brown admitted he hopes to use billions pried from industrial emitters' wallets to spend on his pet project, an all-but-gilded bullet train. If you wonder whether a train that requires massive construction, generating plenty of CO2 emissions in the process, is a tenuous link to fighting global warming, you're not alone.

But that's the M.O. of those who want "more." The Legislature previously sought to snatch cities and counties' gasoline and property taxes because, well, because it could. State lawmakers grabbed cities' and counties' redevelopment funds, because they could.

The Capitol gang even "borrowed" money designated for public schools to shore up gaps elsewhere in the budget. Because they could. Most recently, they want to use $400 million from a national settlement by banks earmarked for foreclosure prevention and investigation of fraud to pay the state's bills instead. Because they can.

When the governor emerges every January to declare yet another chapter in the government's ongoing saga of too-little revenue, too-much-spending, one might suspect he's not very good at budgeting.

We suspect Brown is brighter than he appears. We think he knows the initial 130-mile stretch of track for his high-speed train simply will squander $6 billion in state and federal funds. He reads the newspaper. He knows not another dime of federal funding will arrive any time in the foreseeable future.

Brown knows that if he's going to get more money, he first must squander the initial $6 billion. Once the seal is broken, and voter-approved bonds are sold to finance the dead-end train's initial leg, then it will be easier to persuade people that the remaining $6 billion in bonds should be sold, too. Even though that still would leave the train $50 billion to $100 billion short of what is needed to complete the project, it won't matter. Billions will be liquid. Fungible. That will make it possible to divert the cash for other spending plans. Time for the old shell game. If you doubt it, just ask cities and counties.

Brown and Capitol Democrats desperately seek jackpots, like crazed gamblers hoping the next roll of the dice will make up for their string of bad bets.

But they have a reverse Midas touch, spreading the poison inherent in taxation. Everything they touch wilts and dies. Witness the unmistakable exodus of taxpaying Californians and job-producing businesses to other states. In fact, these taxers and spenders are Rumplestiltskin in reverse. They spin straw from California's one-time Golden State.

Our hunch is that this won't end soon. Not as long as Brown & Co. can beg, borrow and steal: beg voters to "Please" approve more taxes, as the governor recently did; borrow, as the Legislature has from school funds; and steal from cities and counties.

Grandmas, lock up your savings. The Capitol Gang is on the prowl for "more."

Contact the writer: mlandsbaum@ocregister.com

Contact the writer: or 714-796-5025

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Samsung Claims 4G Galaxy Tab Isn't Directly Competing with iPad 2

Published on 05-27-2012 01:35 AM

As of right now, both Samsung is amidst fighting Apple?s requests for a preliminary injunction against its Galaxy Tab with the argument that the 4Gcapablity if its tablet means it does not directly compete with Apple?s 3G equipped iPad 2. It was just earlier this month, Apple succeeded in reactivating a motion for a preliminary injunction against its rival?s tablet. The appeals court overturned Judge Lucy Koh?s denial of an injunction for the Galaxy Tab, but left the ruling against an injunction on smartphones.

According to FOSS Patents, Samsung filed for an opposition to Apple?s claims. Florian Mueller states that Apple is ?starting from a far better position? with its new motion for an injunction, although a win is far from being guaranteed. In order to win, Apple would need to convince the court of four factors: ?likelihood of success on the merits; likelihood of irreparable harm; balancer of the equities; public interest.? After the appeal court overturned Koh?s assertion that Apple?s design patent was invalid, Apple is more likely to convince the court of the merits of its case. Meanwhile, both Koh and the federal Court of Appeals are in agreement that the case for irreparable harm has been established. Mueller did note that at least one circuit judge believed Apple should prevail on all four factors.

Mueller continued to note that ?Judge O?Malley indicated between the lines that she considers Samsung a reckless infringer whose Galaxy Tab 10.1 should be shut down sooner rather than later, and she clearly wants patent holders to have great access to injunctive relief.? A large part of Samsung?s argument against the injunction in Friday?s filing is based off the claim that, since Apple lacks a 4G version of the iPad 2, the 4G Galaxy Tab doesn?t compete directly with the device. The company also claimed that an injunction would disrupt its partnership with carriers since Samsung has teamed up with carriers to sell the Galaxy Tab 10.1 with 4G contracts.

It was noted that Samsung?s argument is ?not without merit? though it was also believed that it?s ?too weak to avoid a preliminary injunction.? Samsung didn?t take into account that ?4G devices are backward-compatible? and that customers might use them in off-line mode or on 3G networks as well. ?Even if someone thinks that 4G is desirable, I doubt that the number of customers who are out to buy only a 4G tablet is limited.?

The report continues to point out that Samsung is likely to lose during the injunction phase because it could have modified its product in the time since Apple first filed its preliminary injunction motion but chose not to. The Korean company released a redesigned Galaxy Tab 10.1 in Germany last year in order to work around a sales ban in the country.

Source: FOSS Patents

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Syria Violence: Dozens Of Children Killed In New Attack

BEIRUT -- Gruesome video Saturday showed rows of dead Syrian children lying in a mosque in bloody shorts and T-shirts with gaping head wounds, haunting images of what activists called one of the deadliest regime attacks yet in Syria's 14-month-old uprising.

The shelling attack on Houla, a group of villages northwest of the central city of Homs, killed more than 90 people, including at least 32 children under the age of 10, the head of the U.N. observer team in Syria said.

The attacks sparked outrage from U.S. and other international leaders, and large protests in the suburbs of Syria's capital of Damascus and its largest city, Aleppo. It also renewed fears of the relevance of a month-old international peace plan that has not stopped almost daily violence.

The U.N. denounced the attacks in a statement that appeared to hold President Bashar Assad's regime responsible, and the White House called the violence acts of "unspeakable and inhuman brutality."

"This appalling and brutal crime involving indiscriminate and disproportionate use of force is a flagrant violation of international law and of the commitments of the Syrian government to cease the use of heavy weapons in population centers and violence in all its forms," said U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon and international envoy Kofi Annan. "Those responsible for perpetrating this crime must be held to account."

More than a dozen amateur videos posted online Saturday gave glimpses of the carnage, showing lines of bodies laid out in simple rooms, many with bloody faces, torsos and limbs. In some places, residents put chunks of ice on the bodies to preserve them until burial.

One two-minute video shows at least a dozen children lined up shoulder to shoulder on a checkered blanket on what appears to be the floor of a mosque. Blood trickled from one girl's mouth. One boy, appearing to be no more than 8, had his jaw blown off. The video shows flowered blankets and rugs covering several rows of other bodies.

Another video posted Saturday showed a mass grave, four bodies wide and dozens of meters (yards) long.

Activists from Houla said Saturday that regime forces peppered the area with mortars after large demonstrations against the regime on Friday. That evening, they said, pro-regime fighters known as shabiha stormed the villages, gunning down men in the streets and stabbing women and children in their homes.

A local activist reached via Skype said regime forces fired shells at Houla, about 40 kilometers (25 miles) northwest of Homs. The shabiha entered the villages, raiding homes and shooting at civilians, Abu Yazan said. More than 100 people were killed, more than 40 of them children and most of them in the village of Taldaw, he said. Many had stab wounds, another activist said.

"They killed entire families, from parents on down to children, but they focused on the children," Yazan said.

The Syrian government blamed the killings on "armed terrorist groups" ? a term it often uses for the opposition ? but provided no details or death toll.

But like U.N. officials, the White House issued a statement directed at the regime.

The U.S. is "horrified" by the Houla attacks, National Security Council spokeswoman Erin Pelton said in a statement. "These acts serve as a vile testament to an illegitimate regime that responds to peaceful political protest with unspeakable and inhuman brutality."

U.N. observers, among more than 250 who were dispatched in recent weeks to salvage the cease-fire plan, found spent artillery tank shells at the site Saturday, and U.N. officials confirmed the shells were fired at residential neighborhoods. The head of the team, Maj. Gen. Robert Mood, called the attack a "brutal tragedy."

The bloodshed is yet another blow to the international peace plan brokered by Annan and cast a pall over his coming visit to check on the plan's progress. The cease-fire between forces loyal to the regime of Assad and rebels seeking to topple it was supposed to start on April 12 but has never really taken hold, with new killings every day.

The U.N. put the death toll weeks ago at more than 9,000. Hundreds have been killed since.

The grisly images were condemned by anti-regime groups and political leaders around the world.

"With these new crimes, this murderous regime pushes Syria further into horror and threatens regional stability," French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius said in a statement Saturday.

The London-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights released an unusually harsh statement, saying Arab nations and the international community were "partners" in the killing "because of their silence about the massacres that the Syrian regime has committed."

The Houla villages are Sunni Muslim. The forces came from an arc of nearby villages populated by Alawites, members of the offshoot of Shiite Islam to which Assad belongs, the activists said.

The activists said the Houla killings appeared to be sectarian between the two groups, raising fears that Syria's uprising, which started in March 2011 with protests calling for political reform, is edging closer to the type of war that tore apart Syria's eastern neighbor, Iraq.

"I don't like to talk about sectarianism, but it was clear that this was sectarian hatred," said activist Abu Walid.

The Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said 96 people were killed, 26 of them children and four of them army defectors.

The group's head, Rami Abdul-Rahman, who relies on activists inside Syria, said all were killed in shelling, but that no forces entered Houla.

Syrian state TV condemned the opposition groups for the "massacre" in a statement Saturday.

"The armed groups are escalating their massacres against the Syrian people only days before international envoy Kofi Annan's visit in a bid to defeat his plan and a political solution to the crisis and with the aim of exploiting the blood of Syrians in the media bazar," it said.

The videos could not be independently verified. The Syrian government bars most media from operating inside the country.

The harsh condemnation from anti-regime groups reflects their growing frustration with international reluctance to intervene in Syria's conflict.

World powers have fallen in behind the U.N. plan. The U.S. and European nations say they will not intervene militarily, and while Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Libya have said they will arm Syria's rebels, no country is known to be doing so.

A spokeswoman for the opposition Syrian National Council called on the U.N. Security Council "to examine the situation in Houla and to determine the responsibility of the United Nations in the face of such mass killings, expulsions and forced migration from entire neighborhoods."

Also Saturday, the story of 11 Lebanese Shiites who were reported kidnapped in Syria this week took another strange turn.

Lebanese officials first said their expected arrival on a plane from Turkey to Lebanon late Friday was delayed for "logistical reasons."

On Saturday, Turkey's Foreign Ministry denied the men were in Turkey ? raising new questions about their fate.

Lebanese and Syrian officials blamed Syrian rebels for Tuesday's kidnapping. No group has claimed responsibility.

___

Associated Press writers Elaine Ganley in Paris, Zeina Karam in Beirut, Anne Gearan in Washington, Frank Jordans in Geneva and Selcan Hacaoglu in Ankara, Turkey, contributed reporting.

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Greek euro exit would be a recipe for hardship

Signs advertising that each item of merchandise is on sale for one euro are seen in a discount shop in central Athens on Friday, May 25, 2012. Uncertainty over Greece's future in the eurozone has hammered markets ahead of June 17 general elections in the crisis-hit country. The Greek share index touched new 22-year lows, dipping below 500 points on Friday. (AP Photo/Thanassis Stavrakis)

Signs advertising that each item of merchandise is on sale for one euro are seen in a discount shop in central Athens on Friday, May 25, 2012. Uncertainty over Greece's future in the eurozone has hammered markets ahead of June 17 general elections in the crisis-hit country. The Greek share index touched new 22-year lows, dipping below 500 points on Friday. (AP Photo/Thanassis Stavrakis)

A sign advertising that each item of merchandise is on sale for one euro is seen in a discount shop in central Athens on Friday, May 25, 2012. Uncertainty over Greece's future in the eurozone has hammered markets ahead of June 17 general elections in the crisis-hit country. The Greek share index touched new 22-year lows, dipping below 500 points on Friday. (AP Photo/Thanassis Stavrakis)

ATHENS, Greece (AP) ? As Greece creaks under its untenable debt and a shrinking economy, the possibility that it could stop using the euro is becoming increasingly likely. The effects of such a move would be as quick as they would be brutal for ordinary Greeks, who would essentially take a 50-percent pay cut just as prices soar.

Here's a look at what else could happen:

THE RETURN OF THE DRACHMA

No other country has ever left the 17-country eurozone before and there are no procedures in the EU's vast rulebook that would push any country out. But one fear is that the Greeks could decide to vote in an anti-austerity government on June 17 that may then decide to renege on the terms of the multi-billion-euro bailout which has been keeping the country afloat. Greece could be then forced into a messy exit from the euro bloc. It would then have no choice but to start printing its own currency ? the drachma ? to pay its way.

According to the Greek think tank Foundation for Economic and Industrial Research (IOBE), such a move would hit the Greek people hard ? and quickly. The new drachma would lose half or more of its value relative to the euro. This would drive up inflation and sap the purchasing power of the average Greek. At the same time, the country's economic output would drop, putting more people out of work where one in five is already unemployed. The prices of imported goods would skyrocket, putting them out of reach for many.

THE DASH FOR CASH

The prospect of Greece leaving the euro and dealing with a devalued drachma has already prompted many people to start withdrawing their euros out of the country's banks.

"Fear has gripped many who are withdrawing their money," said IOBE head of research Aggelos Tsakanikas.

Although the latest bank deposit figures aren't yet available, Greek President Karolos Papoulias last week said about ?700 million ($898 million) in deposits was taken out of banks the week after the May 6 election. What's more, according to central bank data, Greek banks have been hemorrhaging money for almost three years now ? from a high of ?237.8 billion ($302.5 billion) worth of deposits in Sept. 2009 down to ?165.3 billion ($210.3 billion) in March this year.

A victory for anti-bailout lawmakers in the June 17 election would likely trigger an even bigger bank run, said Dimitris Mardas, associate professor of economics at the University of Thessaloniki. Greek authorities, Mardas predicts, would respond by imposing controls on the movement of money for as long as it takes for the panic to subside.

WHAT ABOUT HOMES AND SAVINGS?

As the new drachma quickly loses its value against other currencies, ordinary Greeks' savings and pensions will shrink just as rapidly. Analyst Vangelis Agapitos estimates that inflation under the new drachma would quickly reach 40 to 50 percent to catch up with the fall in the new currency's value. This would make everything much more expensive.

"People are going to need five times the amount of money they would have needed to purchase something," Agapitos said.

To stop the falling value of the drachma, interest rates would have to be increased to as high as 30 to 40 percent, according to Agapitos. People will then be unable to pay off their loans and mortgages and the country's banks would have to be nationalized to stop them from going under, he predicts.

FEW BENEFITS FOR BUSINESS

Some Greeks believe quitting the euro would boost the country's economy as a devalued drachma would make Greek exports cheaper.

But Constantine Michalos, president of the Athens Chamber of Commerce and Industry, says Greece doesn't have a strong enough export-oriented economy to take advantage of a devalued currency. The country currently imports twice as much as it exports.

"Without any real heavy industry, the Greek economy can't exploit this advantage," Michalos said. "Our main industry is tourism, but in a chaotic situation, which tourist would choose to come to Greece right after the country goes back to the drachma?"

To get its international bailouts, Greece had to embark on a series of economic and market reforms such as reducing a bloated public sector and cutting red tape. Agapitos warns that if Greece dumps the euro, the incentive to carry out these reforms would evaporate, hurting Greece's competitiveness.

GETTING IT ON THE BLACK MARKET

A drachma that is dwindling in value means that even basic, foreign-produced goods such as medicines or fuel will cost much more. Almost inevitably, a thriving black market would emerge, taking more steam out of the economy just as bank loans become much more difficult to pay off.

Vangelis, a 58-year-old former customs official who didn't want to give his full name, worried that going back to the drachma would return Greece to the abject poverty of 1940s when it was under Nazi occupation.

"We'll be paying half our salary for a can of olive oil ... Greeks can't be thinking about returning to the drachma. It would be a catastrophe, a catastrophe," Vangelis said.

TURNING TO A LIFE OF CRIME?

With all the pain a drachma-based economy would induce, IOBE head of research Aggelos Tsakanikas foresees an increase in crime as people struggle to pay bills. "We won't see tanks in the streets and violence, we won't see people starving in the streets, but crime could very well rise," he said.

Others reject the apocalyptic scenarios altogether, saying Greeks will fall back on their resourcefulness to overcome hard times and lend a hand to those less well off.

"The way things are now, it can't get any worse," says Athens resident Tasos Schinas, 37. "Sure, the transition to the drachma will be difficult (but) average people will find a way to survive, many will probably go back to the village and start growing produce ... We just won't go back to the lifestyle we've led all this time."

Agapitos, the analyst, thinks that attitude is too cavalier.

"Desperate people do desperate things, but I can't predict what will happen," he said. "There will be rage and people will want to vent it but it may not be done in a civilized way."

Associated Press

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